Market review for 12 – 16. 09, 2011 (38/2011)
During the previous trading week the US dollar managed to strengthen against its major competitors. During theMonday’s Asian trading session the Euro fell to its lowest level since 2010 against the yen and retreated against the US Dollar on speculation that German Chancellor Angela Merkel prepared to default Greece. This fact tells about reducing the attractiveness of European assets. As a result, the EUR/USD pair fell to its lows at $1.3494 area. Later on, during the European session amid rumours of approval for the next tranche of financial help for Greece, the Euro raised to the its daily highs at $1.36942 zone.
On Monday, on the background of the falling Asian Stock Markets and tendency of getting rid of risky assets, the investors decided to "escape" into the “safe haven” Yen. The USD/JPY pair dropped to its daily lows of Y76.7550 and traded in this area during the Asian trading session. Then, during European session the Yen recovered and showed its high at Y77.384 zone.
The American trading session was quite volatile on Monday because of the absence of any important announcements and news. Initially, the Euro and The British Pound stepped back from their highs against the background of concern about lowering the credit rating of several European banks. In contrast, the discussions about the China’s help for Italy supported these currencies to recover against the dollar.
The Euro was trading near its maximums during the Asian session on Tuesday. Further strengthening of Euro currency was constrained by fears concerning the further spreading out of the debt crisis in the region. As a result, at the beginning of the European session the EUR/USD pair renewed its decrease and fell to its second day low at $1.3557. In contrast, the discussions about the China’s help for Italy supported Euro currency to recover against the dollar and strengthen to its daily highs at $1.3737 area.
The GBP/USD pair remained in the range of $1.5828 - $1.5868 during the Asian trading session on the same day. Later on the speech of one of Bank of England representative, Mr. Posen, had put a negative effect on the dynamics of GBP trading and prevented it from growing over its previous session high. He stated that the Bank of England must make a decision about the new 50- billion purchase of the assets within the next three months. The pair started to fall and showed its daily low at $1.5760. The British pound was prevented from moving even lower by the reports of Retail Price Index, which was more or less concurrent with the forecasts. After this UK Inflation data the British Pound showed a slight increase and strengthened against the US Dollar.
During the Asian session on Wednesday the euro lost all its previously won positions. The pressure on the Euro was continued due to concerns regarding spreading of the debt crisis in the region. We also need to mention that Morgan Stanley lowered their forecasts on the EUR/USD pair. They expected to see the pair at the level of $1.30 toward the end of 2011 year and at the level of $1.25 in the first quarter of 2012. Also, according to the published statistics, which showed the decrease in Industrial Production in the EU in July didn’t remain unnoticed and had a bad effect on the trading dynamics of the Euro currency. However, during the European session the Euro strengthened against major currencies amid falling yields of Italian and Spanish bonds, which indicated a decrease in concerns about the situation in the region. The EUR/USD pair traded in the range $1.35914 to $1.3783.
On Thursday the Euro lost part of the won yesterday positions against major currencies during the Asian session and traded in the range of $1.3701 - $1.3750 against the US Dollar. However during the European session the currency strengthened against the backdrop of comments by French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who expressed their confidence that Greece would remain in the EC. In addition to that, the positive Euro dynamics was supported by the results of the Spain Government Bonds sale. For these reasons, the EUR/USD raised to its session maximums at $1.3910 area.
Swiss franc retreated against the euro on the same day after the SNB has expressed readiness to take additional measures to limit the strengthening of the national currency. At the end of the meeting, the SNB left a 3- month LIBOR rate at the fixed range of 0.00-0.25%, which corresponded with expectations.
The most important news of this session were reports of the 5 main central banks, in particular: ECB, the FRS, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan and Bank of England which confirm that dollar liquidity would be provided by their coordinated actions, as an attempt to boost liquidity across the Euro-zone. On the background of these news, the greenback dropped against its competitors. The EUR/USD pair showed its daily high at $1.3930 and the GBP/USD recorded the level of $1.5867.Back